November 6th is Election day and its a big one, seeing this will determine who holds the power in Congress, which is currently being held by the Republicans.
1. History is on the side of Democrats. Since the Civil War, there have only been three midterm elections in which the president’s party didn’t lose seats in the House. Could this be the fourth? Sure. But it’s not the likeliest outcome — especially when you consider Trump’s approval rating is in the mid-40s. which could mean losses of 30+ seats for the president’s party.
2. Women are energized. And not for Trump. Women are going for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate by 13 points. This is major when you consider that of the 69 districts, 48 of them were carried by Trump in the 2016 election.
3. The playing field is (almost) all in GOP territory. Of the 28 seats that CNN rates as “toss ups,” 26 of them are held by Republicans. Of the 15 seats rated as “lean Democratic,” 13 of them are GOP-held. Of the 18 seats CNN ranks as “lean Republican,” all 18 are held by Republicans. There are massive swaths of GOP vulnerability and almost no corresponding Democratic problem seats.
4. The GOP base got an energy bump from Kavanaugh. The fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which Trump effectively cast to his supporters as an attempted destruction of a good man by the liberal left, energized a previously “meh” base. What is up for debate is whether that surge will last — both because a) it’s in the rearview mirror and b) conservatives got what they want (Kavanaugh is on the court).
5. Democrats are drowning Republicans in ads. Democrats’ fundraising edge throughout the election cycle has translated into a MAJOR TV ad edge in the closing weeks of the campaign. Democrats sponsored 208,000 ads in House races versus 128,000 from pro-Republican candidates and organizations between September 15 and October 18. In that same period, Democrats aired 171,000 ads in Senate contests as compared to 118,000 by GOPers.
Courtesy of CNN